Storm 98L Bulletin 22Sept2022

22 Sep, 2022

Storm 98L Bulletin 1 on 22nd September 2022

We are tracking progress of a potential storm that is yet to form a tropical depression but is likely to in the next 24 hours.

There remain a great many ‘ifs’ at this time but if we received this storm, it will reach us in around 120 hours i.e. 5 days, or around Tuesday.

 

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS

At this stage, we have just two actions:

  • Ensure personal preparations are advanced (all of us should already be in this state in the middle of Hurricane Season)
  • Action the IT actions in the Integra Tropical Storm and Hurricane Plan

Where is it going?

The graph shows the possible tracks according to the various models. At this stage, without a depression formed, you can pretty much pick a model to suit your viewpoint. The dark track in the middle shows the best fit, along with the pressure at various time points from now. This one is shows it reaching our distance at around 96+ hours. You can see it passes to the South but this is a best fit line not a prediction.

There are model collections showing a best fit line passing over Grand Cayman and another located to the North. They are just average positions and the real position is completely indeterminate at this point.

How Strong?

Again it is very uncertain but at 120 hours, 50% of predictions (7 out of 14) have it at TS or Category 1 level, and another 4 of 14 have it at Category 2. Only 3 of 14 have it above this level.

It is important to remember that the strength of any storm is based on a direct hit and the further away it goes past the lower it will be ‘for us’. Most of us will remember the Category 1 (just) direct hit last year, were created some flooding and a lot of mess to clear up but not very much damage.  50 miles way and you have a completely different picture.

The point is, we just need to watch it and start basic preparations. I will update when we know more.

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